Top Predictions of AI for the Next 36 Months, Llama 3, Amazon's 750k Robots, the new Altas, and more

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I rigorously practice notetaking (Second Brain by Thiago Forte). In this section, you will find my predictions of AI milestones, based on extensive reviews of research papers, corporate strategies, and communications, as well as discussions with other experts, outlining the achievements AI is likely to attain.

WILL LIKELY HAPPEN THIS YEAR

Stable Diffusion 3 by Stability AI: Stable Diffusion 3, announced by Stability AI in February 2024 but unreleased, improves image quality and detail. It supports multi-subject prompts, offers models from 800M to 8B parameters for various devices, and introduces a new diffusion transformer architecture for enhanced results.

GPT-5 Will Be Released by OpenAI: The forthcoming GPT-5, shown to enterprise customers as superior to GPT-4, will be fully multimodal, supporting text, speech, image, code, and video inputs. It promises enhanced reasoning, accuracy, and a larger context window of up to 128,000 tokens, plus customization features for personalized assistance.

WILL LIKELY HAPPEN NEXT YEAR

OpenAI Will Release Google Search Competitor: According to The Information, OpenAI is developing a search engine that positions the Microsoft-backed startup as a direct competitor to Google. This new search service will be partially powered by Microsoft's Bing search engine.

AI Agents Become Mostly Functional: Advancements in language models and features like function calls will have made AI agents in multi-agent frameworks mostly functional. They can now develop apps and presentations and conduct market research, significantly assisting us in professional contexts.

Human Narration for Audiobooks Becomes Mostly Unnecessary

Mamba Architecture Replaces Transformers: Mamba Architecture, a state space model (SSM), outperforms Transformers on long-sequence tasks with improved speed and efficiency. It features a selective attention mechanism but requires significantly better performance to justify replacing the more mature, versatile, and widely adopted Transformers. The First Mamba AI models are expected to surpass Transformers by mid-2025. (See here the first production-grade Mamba/ Jamba model.)

LIKELY TO HAPPEN 2026

AI Will Achieve a ≥98th Percentile Score on the Mensa IQ Test: The intelligence quotient (IQ) measures relative intelligence. Mensa International admits members who score in the top 2% on IQ tests, typically requiring a score of 131 (standard deviation 15).

AI is Routinely Employed in Diagnosing Complex Diseases: The majority of medical practitioners in the US and beyond now utilize AI technology to diagnose patients with complex symptoms, which are defined as a set of medical complaints that typically take at least six months from symptom onset to diagnose.

Open-source AI Will Win a Gold Medal in the International Math Olympiad: An AI system has achieved a performance equivalent to a gold medal on the most recent International Mathematical Olympiad (IMO) test; performances on tests from previous years do not qualify.

AI Authors an Article Accepted by a Prestigious Philosophy Journal e.g. Noûs

AI Accurately does Taxes by the End of 2026: By end of 2026, AI will accurately process taxes, available to all in developed countries. User effort will mirror current interactions with human accountants, requiring the submission of all relevant PDFs.

AI is Able to Solve Over 80% of Competition-Level Coding Problems on the First Try: AI will achieve over 80% top-1 strict accuracy on the APPS benchmark, which features coding problems from advanced high school and collegiate competitions such as USACO, IOI, and ACM. Top-1 accuracy, as defined by Dan Hendrycks et al., means the AI solves the problems correctly on the first attempt without generating multiple outputs.

LIKELY TO HAPPEN 2027 AND BEYOND

AI Secures a Gold Medal at the International Olympiad in Informatics

Voice Interactions with AI Surpass Text-based Interactions

AI Produces a Low-Quality Movie from a Given Prompt

A Film Created by AI Reaches #1 on Netflix

AI Publishes an Article in a Top 50 Scientific Journal

An AI-generated Book Lands on the NYT Best Seller List

AI Replaces the Majority of Call Center Workers

And More.

In my book, Generative AI - Navigating the Course to The AGI Future (published by Wiley), I explore future predictions and outline the next steps in GenAI. I cover a wide range of topics, including advanced applications of AI agents, humanoid robotics, and more.

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