first project done✅ -> AGIpath(.net)

.. plus we will reach AGI this year

Product development has dramatically changed recently due to advancements in AI.

Innovations like Cursor AI, Bolt.new, and general AI breakthroughs—especially those demonstrated with o3 (we’ll see below)—are becoming the driving force behind our progress.

Let’s use the start of 2025 to become an unstoppable force of nature, together.

Before diving into why o3 is almost AGI (I’m convinced we’ll reach AGI this year), I’d like to share how, by January 3rd, I’ve already developed my first project: AGIpath.net. (Give it a click, but come back 😉 )

I’ll walk you through my 7-step project blueprint—a systematic approach to developing projects that improve and evolve over time.

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My 7-step blueprint for building projects

I used this to build AGIpath.net at warp speed.

1. Project start with Bolt.new

Bolt.new by StackBlitz, enables AI-powered full-stack web development entirely in-browser, with tools for scaffolding, code generation, and even deployment.

I only use it to create a foundational version of what I plan to build. You completely circumvent the blank-page problem of not knowing where to start. I simply describe what I want to create and maybe how I want it to look, along with any other relevant information. After a brief moment, it provides a solid first version of the project.

Fantastic: Bolt.new is now collaborating with Supabase—a great AI-driven database (it builds a PostgreSQL DB). With one click, it can be hooked into your webpage.

2. Iteration with Cursor AI

You can easily download the complete codebase from Bolt.new. That’s what I do, and I reopen it with Cursor AI—my absolute favorite AI product of 2024! It’s an IDE that integrates AI in the most effective way to develop and refine the code you’ve just downloaded.

Now we build the page: adding buttons, workflows, text, images, and anything else you need.

Tip: Make sure to link your other existing pages—this network effect will help rank them higher!

[I wrote about Bolt.new and Cursor AI in earlier episodes: one, and two.]

This image shows a development environment where the user is working on a React project. It includes the following key sections: 1. Project File Structure (left sidebar): • The project directory is named bos_gambling. • It contains subdirectories and files such as .bolt, node_modules, and src, where src contains components like CallToAction.tsx, Content.tsx, Header.tsx, and Dropdowns.tsx. 2. Code Editor (center panel): • The file Dropdowns.tsx is open, displaying a React functional component with a button element. The button has attributes for styling (style), a className, an onClick handler (handleDownload), and an aria-label. This button is designed to download a PDF and open it in a new tab. 3. Terminal (bottom panel): • The terminal is open with the current branch set to main. The user is within the bos_gambling directory, and no active Git commands are running. 4. Chat Panel with Cursor AI (right sidebar): • The user interacts with Cursor AI, a coding assistant integrated into the IDE. • The user provides feedback: “Great, I like it. But make sure that a new tab opens, and it is also indicated in the button with a respective symbol.” • Cursor AI responds by explaining the changes it made: 1. Added an “external link” icon using the ArrowUpRight icon from lucide-react. 2. Updated the button styles: • Changed to inline-flex for proper icon alignment. • Added a gap between text and the icon. • Added alignItems: 'center' for vertical centering of the icon. 3. Added an aria-label for improved accessibility. 5. Completion Checklist (below the chat): • A list of completed changes, indicating updates to Dropdowns.tsx and other files such as CallToAction.tsx and Navbar.tsx. Overall, the image illustrates how Cursor AI provides real-time assistance by implementing requested changes and explaining them in detail. This integration enhances productivity by automating parts of the coding workflow.

3. Make the project available to the whole world

A professional product needs its domain. I bought AGIpath.net via Squarespace.

Next, if you want to deploy your developed code on a hosting service—which can get quite complex—I maintain a conversation with Cursor’s AI Agent to guide me.

  • I tried DigitalOcean’s Spaces Object Storage (€5/month), but you can’t connect your domain to it. The next option costs €20/month.

  • Being resource-conscious, I tested Netlify and GitHub Pages in parallel. GitHub Pages was an absolute charm to deploy. Connecting the domain name took just 5 minutes. Best of all, it’s practically free—all you need is a GitHub premium account for €3.80/month, and you can host as many pages as you want. 🤯

4. [Repeatable task block] Iterate the project with Cursor

This step is necessary because you’ll identify issues to work on through monitoring (next step), error messages (e.g., in the browser), your own observations on web and mobile, and feedback iterations with trusted people.

5. Featurebase

I appreciate the work of Pieter Levels and found that he uses Featurebase for all of his projects. It’s a simple concept and mega helpful: your users can suggest features or report bugs as they use your page, including upvoting.

This image shows a bug and feedback reporting platform where users can share their ideas, report bugs, and provide feedback for a website or application. Key elements include: 1. Header: The page is titled “💡 Ideas + 🐛 Bugs,” emphasizing its dual purpose of collecting feature suggestions and bug reports. 2. Introduction Message: A prominent message encourages users to share their feedback. It reads: • “I read everything people post here and use it to fix bugs and improve my sites every day. Thanks for helping to improve my sites!” • A warning indicates that users should use the same email they used to sign up on the main website. Feedback posts from mismatched emails will be deleted if they pertain to specific accounts. 3. Navigation and Filters: Buttons like “Top,” “New,” and “Trending” allow users to sort posts. There’s also a “Search” feature and a filter option for finding relevant posts quickly. A red button labeled “Create new post” allows users to submit feedback. 4. User Feedback Posts: • FIRE Calculator Bug: Marked as a priority, this post mentions that the calculator only displays around 30 countries. It has six upvotes and two comments. • Face Recognition Bot Issue: Under review, this post describes a failure with the bot rejecting two pictures. It has three upvotes. • Explore Pages Accessibility Issue: Also under review, this post highlights a problem accessing specific pages. It has one upvote and no comments yet. 5. Design and Layout: Each post includes the platform it pertains to (e.g., Nomads.com), a timestamp (e.g., “About 1 month ago”), and interactive elements like upvote buttons and comment indicators. This platform appears to focus on user engagement to refine and improve the services provided by Nomads.com or similar sites. It encourages collaboration between users and developers.

This is a super powerful source of information for you. When improving the page, it should be your first reference.

6. Monitoring

Register your app on these platforms:

  • Ahrefs: Optimizes SEO by analyzing backlinks, keywords, and competitors.

  • Google Analytics (GA): Tracks and analyzes website traffic and user behavior.

  • Google Search Console (GSC): Monitors site health, indexing, and search visibility.

If you have good stats in Ahrefs and GSC, you’ll observe an increase in traffic in GA!

Tip: GA has a great mobile app. This is what it looks like for me after the first few days:

This image appears to be a Google Analytics dashboard focusing on user activity for a specific period, December 27, 2024, to January 2, 2025, compared to the previous week (December 20 to December 26, 2024). Key details include: 1. Metrics Overview: • Active Users: 32 (an increase compared to the previous period). • Event Count: 276 (an increase, indicated by the upward green arrow). • New Users: 32 (also an increase). 2. Trend of New Users (Graph): • A line chart displays the number of new users per day during the period. • A sharp peak is observed on December 30, where the number of new users reached approximately 18. • The graph compares the current period (solid blue line) with the previous period (dotted blue line), showing a notable improvement. 3. Other Features: • A button labeled “View reports snapshot” provides access to a broader view of the analytics data. 4. User Interface: • The top search bar allows filtering for specific data queries (e.g., “Users last week”). • Icons for notifications and user profile access are visible in the top right corner. This dashboard highlights user growth and engagement, reflecting successful strategies or campaigns during the analyzed period. The sharp increase on December 30 suggests a significant event or effort driving user acquisition.

Fun fact: I didn’t even launch and have already first visitors!

7. Launch! (You can launch multiple times)

When your project is good (not perfect), you launch. (I haven’t done it yet for AGIpath.net, but I’ll probably do it now with this email.)

You launch on Reddit, Hacker News, your newsletter, X.com, LinkedIn (though no one cares about it anymore), and other platforms. You probably can’t launch everywhere—there’s just too much—but you must launch where your potential users are. Your job is to figure that out.

For me, X.com is becoming more critical.

Before you launch, though, make sure your page can handle a lot of traffic for a while and won’t crash. How? Ask Cursor AI how to upscale your resources.

Tip: You can launch multiple times. New feature implemented? Re-launch!

If you continuously ship app improvements, you’ll be unstoppable!

In 2025, everything changes!

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OpenAI’s o3 is close to AGI

o3 is the succeeding model of o1 (they skipped o2, because of potential confusions with o2 the company).

It uses what OpenAI calls a "private chain of thought," where it pauses to internally deliberate before generating responses, aiming to simulate human reasoning processes more effectively.

It is solving the ARC-AGI benchmark so good, that they have to think of new problems to solve.

This graph illustrates the progression of AI performance on the ARC AGI Score (expressed as a percentage) from 2019 to 2024. Key features include: 1. Title: The chart is titled “ARC AGI Score Progression”, emphasizing advancements in artificial general intelligence (AGI) capabilities over time. 2. Axes: • Y-Axis: Displays the AGI score in percentage terms, ranging from 0% to 100%. • X-Axis: Represents years from 2019 to 2024, showing a timeline of progression. 3. Data Points and Models: • 2019-2020: Early models like GPT-2 and GPT-3 achieved minimal progress, staying close to 0% on the AGI scale. • 2023: GPT-4 began showing measurable improvement but still scored below 25%. • 2024: Rapid advancements occurred with new iterations of models: • o1-preview and o1 exceeded 50%, indicating significant generalization capabilities. • o1-Pro reached nearly 75%. • o3 tuned low and o3 tuned high pushed scores close to or at 100%, marking a leap toward AGI-level performance. 4. Trend: The progression remained flat for the initial years, with a sharp exponential increase observed from 2023 to 2024, reflecting breakthroughs in AI adaptability and generalization. 5. Annotations: Labels identify the AI models at each milestone, providing context for the corresponding performance levels. This chart visually highlights the transformative leaps in AI capability within just a few years, showcasing the rapid approach toward AGI benchmarks by 2024.

What is the 𝗔𝗥𝗖 𝗔𝗚𝗜 𝗦𝗰𝗼𝗿𝗲?

The Abstract Reasoning Corpus (ARC) tests AI’s human-like intelligence by evaluating adaptability and generalization on puzzles that can’t be solved by brute force or overfitting. Created by François Chollet, ARC measures how well AI handles novel tasks.

2024 (Early): GPT-4o →Score: 5%

☝️GPT-4o made little progress on the ARC-AGI benchmark, showing that making models bigger isn’t enough to solve these puzzles.

2024 (Later): o1 and Hybrid Methods → Score: 32%

 Hybrid Approach: Jeremy Berman combined Claude 3.5 Sonnet, genetic algorithms, and a code interpreter to reach 53%, the highest score before o3.

☝️These methods improved performance by blending AI language models with algorithmic tools, achieving meaningful, incremental progress.

2024 (A Few Days Ago): OpenAI’s o3

  • Standard Score: 75.7%

  • High-Compute Score: 87.5%

☝️o3 made a massive leap in ARC-AGI performance through program synthesis and advanced reasoning, far surpassing earlier models. This represents a significant architectural breakthrough.

Not AGI—Yet

While o3 is impressive, it’s not AGI.

It relies on external verifiers during inference. → solved quickly

It lacks autonomous learning, a key trait of human intelligence. → for this we need an architectural adjustment.

☝️o3 is a big milestone, but there’s still some way to go before achieving true AGI.

Chollet and team (from arc prize), are working on a second version of the benchmark, coming soon. [Highly recommend reading this article if you want to know more.]

2 more thoughts:

  1. Scale of systems like o3 comes faster than anyone can imagine. (👀 DeepSeek v3.)

  2. Given that there is no wall in the pretraining of AI (proof point o3), and the massive investments in the field, I am convinced we’ll see v0 of AGI this year.

Happy New Year,
Martin 🙇

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